The Commission’s Secretary General addressed the Institute of European Affairs today and made quite a sombre and realistic speech on the theme ‘the EU in 2012 - a Commission Perspective’.
Her key messages were as follows.
Emerging economic governance: While the Commission is seen as an economic organisation very few people realise the practical implications of what has been agreed e.g automatic and systematic oversight by the Commission of national budgets based on independent data and peer review by all Member States. More thorough monitoring of national budget proposals will also be the case. Other new Commission powers include the imposition of fines and requiring external assistance should a Member State not meet the new economic and fiscal rules in place and under negotiation. This will involve a shift from a more academic assessment of national economies to a more fundamental enquiry into all Member States and this implies the Commission having a greater in-country presence. For the present the Commission is not geared up for such a significant change to its remit. A change of mindset will be needed as Member States will have to share information and not shelter it as has been the case in the past. Political skill and sensitivity will be a requirement if the Commission is to do it’s job properly. Big, quick and major decisions are being taken in a hurry without reference to national parliaments and this too will have to change. Even sensitive information will have to be shared.
Future shape of EU and debate about community method: the euro will be core of the future EU but not all countries will be part of this arrangement with enhanced cooperation becoming the norm. A new European architecture is being fashioned. The debate has intensified as to whether intergovernmental structures should be used. The Commission does not agree with this but will work on the new treaty with Member States. Political leadership, in particular the Franco-German alliance, is important and has been dominant in the absence of policy direction from the Commission.The Commission did not have the capacity to respond hence the intergovernmental nature of many recent proposals. As a consequence, the Commission has tried hard particularily since last summer to secure wider support for it’s proposals. In addition, the European Parliament is out of the game where the Community method is not used. There is a real risk of a two circle EU emerging with the UK’s decision of especial importance, but if they opt out in a crossroads moment this will has important implications for European integration. Such a choice needs to be debated and will be in the near term.
Financial Perspective: It is a tough time for the Commission to be bringing forward it’s budget proposals through to 2020. Two blocks are emerging: the spend less club and the cohesion group. Neither is looking at the connection between implementing the EU’s policy and setting spending priorities. As before, a difficult negotiation can be expected but on this occasion matters will be complicated by the ongoing response to the euro crisis.
This is the EU’s worst crisis since it’s foundation. That said major changes have been agreed in the past two years. A more economically intrusive EU will emerge. A debate about these fundamental changes will be needed with the main battle being played out between the choice of an intergovernmental or a more integrated EU. These fundamental decisions will be made over the coming months.
